At this point, TikTok is both alive and dead in the U.S. at the same time.
It exists. People are posting. Brands are spending. Creators are planning their year like nothing is wrong. And yet, legally, politically, and diplomatically, the app is still sitting in a glass box labeled “Do Not Touch Until Further Notice.”
Every few months, someone announces that the situation is “handled.” Every few months, that turns out to mean “handled for now.”
Right before Christmas, headlines popped up claiming TikTok had finally secured its future in the U.S. A deal, we were told, had been signed. U.S. operations would move under American oversight. Oracle would be involved. Employees were reassured. Cue relief.
Except none of the actual power players confirmed it publicly.
Not ByteDance.
Not the Chinese government.
Not anyone who would be legally accountable if this fell apart.
That should have been the first red flag.
Technically speaking, TikTok has already been banned.
The “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act” went into effect January 19, 2025. TikTok’s clock ran out. The app should have been gone.
Instead, the next day, President Trump paused enforcement with an Executive Order. Then he did it again. And again. And again. Four extensions later, we are now operating in what can only be described as a legally tolerated limbo.
The ban exists. The enforcement does not. Everyone pretends this is normal.
The latest pause expires on January 23. Conveniently, the rumored TikTok deal is scheduled to take effect on January 22. That is not confidence. That is deadline parkour.
If you ever want to know how fragile a deal is, look at how closely it hugs the expiration date.
On December 25, Chinese state media commented on the supposed deal.
They did not say “approved.”
They did not say “finalized.”
They did not say “done.”
They said they hope the parties can reach a solution that complies with Chinese law and balances interests.
In diplomatic terms, that is a raised eyebrow.
They also expressed hope that U.S. negotiators would “earnestly fulfill” their commitments. Which is not something you say when the ink is dry.
Lose the formal talk and the message is simple:
“We are not thrilled about being told to sell one of our companies.”
“We want guarantees.”
“And no, this is not over yet.”
That does not mean the deal collapses. But it absolutely means it is not settled in the way headlines implied.
Notably, ByteDance has remained silent. When the owner of the company avoids celebratory announcements, that is usually intentional.
This is not just about TikTok. It is about precedent.
If one government can force the sale of a platform under national security pressure, other governments take notes. China wants assurances this does not become a repeatable strategy. The U.S. wants control. TikTok sits in the middle, trying to exist.
That is why this saga has been dragging on since 2020 and why every “resolution” feels temporary.
Three realistic options:
A clean ending is the least likely outcome.
I am not saying TikTok is about to disappear from U.S. phones. I am saying that anyone calling this “resolved” is either optimistic, uninformed, or very committed to positive spin.
Because when you read the actual statements instead of the summaries, one thing is obvious:
This story is not finished. It is just paused. Again.
