If you feel like you’ve been reading about TikTok getting banned in the U.S. for roughly 47 years, you’re not imagining it. We’re back once again at a deadline, a press conference, and a lot of confident statements that somehow still mean absolutely nothing.
So where are we now?
As of mid-December, TikTok is legally required to either sell its U.S. operations or leave the country entirely. That’s not a suggestion. That’s the law. Except it’s also kind of not happening. Again.
Let’s walk through this without pretending any of it is straightforward.
Back in September, President Trump signed an executive order extending TikTok’s deadline to December 16, giving the company time to finalize a deal with a U.S.-based partner that would separate TikTok from Chinese control.
The administration even said the deal was “imminent.” In the past this was considered “government” language for “please stop asking questions.”
Fast forward to now, and no deal exists. U.S. negotiators reportedly made no progress. Chinese officials haven’t even discussed the details publicly.
And yet, there was a full White House victory lap announcing that TikTok had been “saved.”
Saved by what, exactly, remains unclear.
Logically, yes.
Based on that original executive order, TikTok should shut down U.S. operations at midnight once the deadline passes. That’s what the document says. That’s what the law implies. Except surprise. There’s another executive order. Because, of course, there is.
On September 25, Trump signed a second executive order quietly extending TikTok’s runway again, this time until January 23, 2026.
According to that order, a framework had been presented for a new U.S.-based joint venture. TikTok’s U.S. app would be operated by an American company, majority-owned by U.S. investors, with ByteDance holding less than 20%.
Sounds neat. Clean. Solved. Except the Chinese government has never agreed to this framework. This raises a small but important question. How can an order be based on an agreement that doesn’t exist?
The second executive order instructs the Department of Justice not to enforce the TikTok ban for 120 days, supposedly to allow time for the divestiture to happen. Those 120 days land on January 23.
So technically, TikTok is safe until then. But also technically, that protection relies on a deal that hasn’t been approved by China, discussed publicly, or confirmed by anyone outside the U.S. government. This means this extension is operating on vibes, optimism, and a strong belief that something will work itself out eventually.
If we’re being literal about the wording, maybe.
An agreed-upon divestiture is mentioned in the second executive order. The order shouldn't be applied because there isn't any agreed-upon divestiture. This would imply that TikTok's time is officially over.
And yet, there have been zero announcements, no shutdown plans, no app store warnings, and no indication that TikTok is about to disappear this week.
So either the government knows something it isn’t saying, or everyone is hoping this becomes someone else’s problem later.
At this point, here’s the most accurate summary available.
No one knows what’s going to happen to TikTok in the U.S.
Not the government.
Not ByteDance.
Not creators.
Probably not TikTok either.
What we do know is that the app is still live, still growing, and still operating under a cloud of legal uncertainty that has somehow stretched on for more than a year.
Will TikTok be banned?
Will there be a deal?
Will this get kicked down the road again?
Based on the last twelve months, betting on more extensions and zero clarity feels like the safest option.
And yes, we’ll probably be having this same conversation again very soon.
